研究 数据的对话: The Initial 影响 of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 on Consumer 支出 and Local Economies

2020年7月20日，12bet官方研究所举办了一场研讨会 数据的对话 to discuss the impact of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 on consumer spending and local economies. The virtual discussion included experts from both the 华盛顿公平增长中心 and Opportunity Insights, who are at the forefront of using data to track the economic impact of 新型冠状病毒肺炎 and advising decision makers on how to support local communities through the crisis.

法雷尔, JPMC研究所的总裁兼首席执行官, opened the conversation by noting that good local policy decisions are grounded in granular data and analyses at both the city and neighborhood levels. 法雷尔引用了JPMC研究所最近的数据 本地商业研究, 这说明了在地方层面, spending declined in all cities the 研究所 tracks as part of the Local Commerce lens, 其中旧金山的降幅最大, 芝加哥, 纽约, 和底特律. 此外, we find that a disproportionate share of lower-income neighborhoods experienced extreme spending declines.

马文病房, JPMC研究所的当地商业研究负责人, 主持讨论, 这篇文章的重点是了解当前消费者支出的反应, 它对当地经济的影响, and the importance of microdata for both macroeconomic and place-based analyses and policies.

宏观经济指标

克劳迪娅Sahm, 宏观经济政策主任 at the 华盛顿公平增长中心, discussed the macroeconomic indicators critical to track during a recession. Sahm是“Sahm规则”的创造者,” which identifies signals related to the start of a recession using the monthly unemployment rate. 一旦触发，自动救济款项可以分配给家庭. Sahm discussed how 新型冠状病毒肺炎 economic relief efforts are working so far, noting that 政策制定者 should be mindful that the country will continue to need this kind of relief until people are back at work and businesses are stabilized. Microlevel data, s他说, plays a major role in this kind of macrolevel analysis. According to Sahm, “microdata helps ground economists in data that’s closer to people and businesses.”

地方支出对失业和经济复苏的影响

约翰·弗里德曼, Professor of Economics and International and Public Affairs at Brown University and a founding co-director of Opportunity Insights at Harvard University, discussed Opportunity Insight’s 新型冠状病毒肺炎 Economic Tracker and the variance in economic hardship between neighborhoods. The bulk of the federal policy response to the 新型冠状病毒肺炎 pandemic and economic crisis has been the CARES Act, a $2.2万亿美元的经济刺激计划于3月27日通过, 2020, 是哪个国家为企业提供了医疗和经济救济, 组织, 和个人. Friedman said the federal policy response has been effective at supporting low-income households and their spending but missed the mark on fully stimulating the economy on a macroeconomic level.

Friedman described how higher-income households are cutting back on their spending, 这会影响低收入工人吗, as lower-wage jobs in more affluent areas are especially dependent on higher-income spending in sectors such as in-person services. 未来的政策, 他说, should continue to support lower-income households and small businesses, 尤其是在受灾最严重的地方. Sahm emphasized that the best thing to do for communities that had been enduring economic hardship before the pandemic, 尤其是有色人种群体, 是为了阻止现在的破坏, unlike during the Great Recession when vulnerable communities were left behind and suffered. She indicated that the best course of action for communities is also the best for the country, insofar as it would be more expensive to revitalize the economy later than to mitigate hardship now. 弗里德曼还指出，企业和机构, 包括大学, 应该准备好在covid -19后保留额外的储蓄吗, 应对未来的危机，支持社区应对工作.

私有数据中的公共角色

Sahm and Friedman both discussed the lack of accessible data during previous recessions, 将这些时期与当前的大流行进行比较, 颗粒数据的可用性更广. Sahm described the accessibility of data during the Great Depression as “flying blind,，并同意这种描述, Friedman added how even during the Great Recession researchers could not have produced county-level or high-frequency analyses. The collection of national income statistics of households and firms coming out of the Great Depression eventually led to the creation of the federal statistical agencies: the Bureau of Economic Analysis, 劳工统计局, 和人口普查局. 私有数据可以以更细粒度补充联邦数据集, 然后可以在地方层面进行杠杆化, 允许理解不同地方的结果是如何不同的.

在许多政策或应用程序中, it’s useful to not just have one datapoint each month–you need more granular data–every week, 甚至是每天, because that’s how you figure out the impact of policies and the effect of the recession,弗里德曼说. Private data should be used for analysis and then made available in a public way so counties, 州, 或者其他官员也可以使用它们. 

为了使研究具有可操作性，必须有效地进行沟通

The panelists discussed bridging the academic and policymaker gap through effective communication. “We often forget that communicating the research is just as important as doing the research in the first place,弗里德曼说. This is especially important given the target audience; 政策制定者 and officials are very busy, 特别是在大流行期间. Sahm emphasized the time and skills required to effectively translate research into digestible, 对于非学术观众来说，这是最重要的一点. “让研究人员产生影响,萨姆说。, “他们必须知道决策者眼中的真实世界是什么样子.”

We are grateful to the panelists for their expert insights and perspectives, which are invaluable as we navigate the uncertain road to economic and public health recovery. 

该活动是研究所“数据对话”活动的一部分, 正在进行的一系列与顶尖专家的对话, 政策制定者, business and nonprofit leaders linking research with important policy topics of the day.